Research

 

The Now-Casting method initially developed by Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin is now used in many institutions.  There has been extensive academic research on this topic in recent years which has enhanced the methodology and expanded knowledge of its applicability to different countries.  The following is a non-exhaustive list of relevant research papers

Euro Area

Angelini, Camba-Mendez, Giannone, Reichlin & Runstler, 2011, "Short-term forecasts of Euro area GDP growth", Econometrics Journal and Working Paper of the European Central Bank

Banbura & Modugno, 2010, "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Data Sets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data" Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank

Euro Area
 countries Runstler, Barhoumi, Benk, Cristadoro, Den Reijer, Jakaitiene, Jelonk, Rua, Ruth, & van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise", Journal of Forecasting and Occasional Paper of the European Central Bank
Global (IMF) Matheson, 2011, "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time", IMF Working Papers 11/43.  See also: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010, Appendix 1.2
US Giannone, Reichlin & Small, 2008, "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May, and Working Paper of the Federal Reserve
New Zealand Matheson, 2010, " An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys", Economic Modelling and Working Paper of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Norway Aastveit & Trovik, 2008, "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy", Empirical Economics, and Working Paper of the Norges Bank
China Yiu & Chow, 2011, "Nowcasting Chinese GDP: information content of economic and financial data", Working Paper of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Switzerland Siliverstovs & Kholodilin, 2010, "Assessing the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases for now-/forecasting GDP: evidence for Switzerland", Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
UK Giannone, Reichlin & Simonelli, "Is the UK still in rececession?", Vox 23 November, 2009
Ireland Antonello, D'Agostino, McQuinn, Kieran, Derry & O'Brien, 2008, "Nowcasting Irish GDP", Research Technical Papers, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). Liebermann, 2012, "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth", Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin
Germany Marcellino, Massimiliano, Schumacher & Christian, 2010, "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics and Discussion Paper of the Deutsche Bundesbank
France Barhoumi, Darné & Ferrara, 2009, "Are dissagregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?", Journal of Forecasting 2010 and Working Paper for Banque de France. Bessec & Doz, 2011, "Prevision de court terme de la croissance du PIB francias a l'aide de modeles a facteurs dynamiques" a Working Paper of the Treasury of France
Netherlands Jasper de Winter, 2011, "Forecasting GDP growth in times of crisis: private sector forecasts versus statistical models", DNB Working Paper
Czech Republic Arnostova, Havrlant, Ruzicka & Toth, 2011, "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583, December
Survey of the literature Banbura, Giannone & Reichlin, 2010, "Nowcasting", Working Paper of the ECB, and chapter in Clements & Hendry, editors, Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting
Note: this is a list of independent research papers, all of which employ versions of the now-casting methodology developed by our founders.  However, our founders have not necessarily supervised or been directly involved in all of the research cited above.